Ron Paul & Iowa caucus

With the Iowa caucuses less than 2 weeks away, a new poll indicates that Ron Paul sits atop the field of Republican presidential candidates in Iowa – the state that holds the first contest in the primary and caucus calendar.

According to an Iowa State survey, 28% of Iowa GOP caucus goers say Paul, the longtime congressman who's making his third bid for the White House, is their first choice for the Republican nomination, with 25% backing former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. The survey suggests that when it comes to the commitment of support, Paul may have an advantage.

"What our poll says is that 51% of Paul's supporters say they're definitely backing him," said James McCormick, professor and chair of political science at Iowa State and coordinator of the poll. "The percentage for the next two candidates is much weaker, at 16.1 for Mitt Romney and 15.2 for Newt Gingrich."

Obama vs. Boehner

Boehner recently made public a letter urging Obama to order the Senate back from their holiday break to take part in further talks. The Democratic- controlled Senate rejected this idea and Obama agreed with them. The House ended up approving of a resolution supporting a yearlong extension of both the payroll tax cut and emergency federal unemployment benefits. About three measures have been approved that are set to expire December 31. These measures have slammed into a conservative roadblock in the House. No one knows how to stop the logjam. The Republicans are calling for a one-year payroll tax cut extension. Boehner has decided to ask Obama to appoint negotiators. If we don't act on this we might have a major economic and political fallout. Boehner is in favor of the Senate plan ( a two month long extension) and most rank and file members are against it. The Senate's two month measure would reduce the deficit by approximately $3 billion. The two month extension was agreed on as a fallback position.

House Passed Payroll Tax Plan

Today the House of Representatives passed the Republican favored payroll tax cut plan. The bill passed with a 234-193 vote. Now the senate will have it choice to oppose or accept the bill. The bill will try to help prevent taxes that would affect millions of Americans. The bill also included the approval of the Keystone XL oil pipeline. The pipeline had been in much debate over the recent years. This pipeline would help send oil from northern Alberta, Canada all the way to Texas. Many representatives opposed the bill because of the environmental consequences. The senate will help decide the outcome in a few days.
Source CNN and MSNBC

House defies Obama on Payroll Tax Bill

A Washington political showdown took place Tuesday, as the House of Representatives passed a Republican plan that would extend the payroll tax cut and speed the process for government approval of the Keystone XL oil pipeline. The bill, passed on a 234-193 vote, now goes to the Senate, where it was unlikely to pass due to strong opposition from Democratic leaders. Also the White House says President Barack Obama will veto the plan if it reaches his desk. The White House made a statement urging Congress to “do its job and stop the tax hike that’s scheduled to affect 160 million Americans in 18 days.” “The American people are asking, ‘Where are the jobs?,’” Speaker John Boehner said. “The House is listening, and we’ve passed a large bill that contains many of the priorities of our caucus and the White House.”

Source: Washington Post

Newt Gingrich-Jon Hunstman Debate

In a debate Tuesday afternoon loosely modeled after the "Lincoln-Douglass" debates, Newt Gingrich and Jon Hunstman participated in a free-flowing discussion of foreign policy and national security. The format was designed with only suggested time limits of five minutes (with each candidate free to use more or less time as desired), and very broad topics (the "moderator", who really just provided the conversation with general direction, simply stated things like "what are your views on China"). It was a format which enabled the candidates to speak at much more length and with more clarity on the issues than they would in the typical format, and although the candidates rarely "debated" as we would typically think and have seen several times so far through the campaign, it was a very good discussion of the issues, and one which both Gingrich and Hunstman will pursue more of as the campaign goes on. At one point, Gingrich stated that were he to win the party's nomination, he would challenge Barack Obama to "seven three hour debates" of that format. The moderator followed by telling Gingrich that he would "bet $10,000 dollars" that Obama would not take that bet, making fun of the comments made by Mitt Romney in the last GOP debate. Whether we see more debates of this format or not, seeing these two illustrate their vast knowledge on several different issues was very good, and would be a challenging yet productive tool for each of the other candidates to show that they really have the depth of knowledge to be President of the United States.

Gingrich's Vow to Stay Positive

After engaging in a verbal back-and-forth with Mitt Romney, Gingrich is now vowing to "stay positive" and avoid attacking fellow Republican presidential candidates. Yesterday Gingrich and Romney "sniped at each other over their records in the private sector". Now Gingrich says he wants to "stay positive" so that Obama won't end up getting re-elected. By staying positive Gingrich claims that the republican nominee will be able to emerge from the primary season "un-bloodied" and have a better chance against Obama. Gingrich wants to stay focused on real issues like economic and job recovery. He also vowed to "disassociate himself with any independent political groups that run negative ads against other candidates", and advised people not to donate to any Super PAC that produces negative advertising. Even though Romney may be attacking Gingrich because he is now the runner up, Gingrich remains calm, cool, and collected.

Source: CNN

GOP Payroll Tax Package - Will It Pass?

The GOP members of the House have unveiled a package which intends to couple an extension of several high-priority items, including the payroll tax holiday and unemployment benefits, with provisions aimed at rounding up conservative support. Most Democrats think that it doesn't have a chance to pass with the Democratic-controlled Senate. The Republicans think they can pass the legislation on their votes alone, but they are trying to round up some Democrats nonetheless. The House Republican plan is a broad package that includes a one-year extension of the payroll tax cut; an extension of unemployment insurance; and a two-year extension of the “doc fix,” which prevents cuts in reimbursements to doctors who see Medicare patients. All of those are items that leaders of both parties as well as the White House have said that Congress must pass before it adjourns later this month. Where the parties differ is on how to pay for the cost of those items. Some lawmakers of both parties have expressed concern that extending the payroll tax cut would threaten the solvency of Social Security; GOP leaders say their plan would address those concerns by cutting spending elsewhere in the federal budget and directing those savings to the Social Security Trust Fund. They are planning to vote later this week.

US out of Iraq

Barack Obama sat down with the Iraqi prime minister and talked about how there will be no more United States troops in Iraq by December 31. I have a feeling that this is not the end for US involvement in the affairs of Iraq because really the country is just a big powder keg poised to blow at any moment.

This is interesting in and of itself but it also marks some changes in the Obama strategy. Obama is getting into campaign mode as the election draws nearer and he's trying to put certain things into place as well as highlight his major accomplishments and just other stuff he did. In this way it is easy to give him credit but still hard to praise him. Especially for "ending the war". Because he really just stuck to George Bush's timeline so it's like, ok, good, you did George Bush's thing.

JACKSON ROBERTS

Romney's New Weapon

As the Romney campaign, suddenly endangered by Gingrich, is trying to regain ground, Ann Romney is being sent out to offer voters a compelling, three-dimensional portrait of her husband. Mrs. Romney, 62, has appeared, over the last week, at four events in Iowa, New Hampshire and Washington, offering what she calls “the other side of Mitt that you never hear about.”

Ann is drawing particular attention to an important asset in a race against Mr. Gingrich, especially in conservative states like Iowa: the Romneys’ unblemished marriage of 42 years. One of Gingrich's biggest vulnerabilities in this race is his marital history - he has acknowledged having had extramarital affairs and has been divorced twice. Mrs. Romney has brought women to tears describing how her husband has stood by her throughout her battle with multiple sclerosis, which once left her depressed and fatigued for months at a time.

“He is there, he is steadfast, you can count on him,” Mrs. Romney told the women. “He won’t abandon you in the hardest times.” The message was not lost on the voters in the room. “It says a lot about his character,” said Connie Schmett, who attended the event. “If he is not going to abandon his wife, he is not going to abandon his country.”

Is Romney's campaign merely grasping at straws, or will this “new weapon” prove to be successful? The American people want a president of good character, someone who's personal life will reflect their political life, especially after the events which led to the end of Cain's campaign.

the Latest on Newt and his GOP Compadres

Things are going just swimmingly for Newt Gingrich, who has lately surged ahead of the pack. He has gained recent support in South Carolina, but an even greater win victory was Iowa--a state where the economy is their top priority--something Gingrich is well prepared to deal with. Due to a recent poll from ABC/the Washington Post, we can see that the three frontrunners are Gingrich with 33%, Romney with 18%, and Paul with 18%, leaving candidates like Bachmann, Perry, Santorum, and Huntsman in the dust.

Sources: ABC, NPR, Washington Post

Obama's Speech

“This country succeeds when everyone gets a fair shot, when everyone does their fair share, and when everyone plays by the same rules, ” Obama told a crowd packed into a school gymnasium in Kansas. Obama’s speech was the most direct condemnation of wealth and income inequality, and the most expansive moral defense of the need for government activism to combat it, that Obama has delivered in his career. Using the type of populist language that has emerged in the Occupy protests around the nation, Obama warned that growing income inequality meant that the United States was undermining its middle class. He said it “gives lie to the promise that’s at the very heart of America: that this is the place where you can make it if you try.” This speech was notable for its more direct emphasis on inequality itself as a moral scourge and as a threat to the country’s future. He cast the question of whether government can and should act to combat inequality as a referendum on American values and our national identity.

Trump Debates

Once again, Donald Trump has made his entrance into the political realm with his loud criticisms and honest statements about the current candidates in the presidential race. He plans to hold a Republican debate just before January 3 before the Iowa caucuses. Though Mr. Trump may be a "great showman" as some of the GOP candidates have stated, his involvement in the race especially with the upcoming debate may do more harm than good in the Republican strategists' opinions. Many of them have urged candidates to refuse to attend the debate saying that "It's not good for the party. It's only good for Donald Trump." They think it is a bad idea to attend a debate held by someone who said that they may potentially run for president in the next election as an independent. As of yet, only two of the candidates have refused the debate: Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman. It is still unknown whether or not Mitt Romney will accept the invitation. With Newt Gingrich rising in the polls, Romney needs a boost to get him back to the top. Could this debate be beneficial to the party with the caucuses just weeks away? Or will it only bring the candidates on the brink of destruction?

New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/06/us/politics/gop-strategists-fret-over-trump-debate-circus.html?ref=us

Who will Cain supporters support next?

As big new rolled in this week as Herman Cain officially dropped out of the race for presidency while being accused of many sexual allegations. Newt Gingrich has gained many of new support from those who supported Mr. Cain. Gingrich's support has helped him tremendously in recent polls. But who else can benefit from Cains drop? Ron Paul has gain support over recent weeks which could have been the result of Cain's falling. This question still rooms, as many believe that major candidates like Rick Perry and Mitt Romney will not gain much support from former Cain supporters. Many believe that Cain supporters will disperse and not choose one major candidate to follow.

Newt Gingrich's Rise

Just as Herman Cain has removed himself from the race due to the allegations against him, Newt Gingrich is running very strong, showing in the latest Gallup poll to be a whole 15 points ahead of Mitt Romney. The poll, conducted from December 1st through December 5th, shows Newt Gingrich at 37 percent, with only Mitt Romney at 22 percent totaling double digits. As Herman Cain's supporters decide who they will now support, those numbers could change, but as of now Newt Gingrich looks very strong. Will he end this race as the GOP Nominee for President? Right now, I would be very hesitant to say that. Throughout this race, many different candidates have had their time in the sunshine: Rick Perry was at or very close to the top soon after he entered the race, Herman Cain was nearly equal with Mitt Romney for a long while before the sexual allegations against him brought him down, and Mitt Romney of course has been very steady in his position, seeing neither major drops in support nor major rises. With the previous rise and downfall of Perry and Cain, I would be very hesitant to declare Gingrich the next GOP nominee for President. With that said, however, Newt seems to be consistently gaining support and approval from the GOP base, and if he's able to keep himself in check and keep his skeletons in the closet, he has a very good chance to end up as the party's nominee.

Sources: Gallup.

With Cain gone, where will his supporters go?

After several sexual allegations against him, Cain has decided to end his presidential campaign so that his family won't have to endure any further pain from any more false allegations. With Cain out of the race, where will his supporters go? We are still waiting on an endorsement from Cain. He said that he "would weigh his options carefully and not rush to endorse one of his former opponents". While we wait to see who Cain will endorse, his rivals are waiting with open arms for his supporters to shift to them. Newt Gingrich, the current forerunner, is considered "a favorite to get Cain's endorsement". Ron Paul says that he is "a natural fit for the Cain crowd". Bachmann also argues that she is attracting Cain followers. "I think part of it is because people see that I'm the tea party candidate in the race. They saw Herman Cain as an outsider, and I think they see that my voice will be the one that would be most reflective of his." She believes that trailing candidates like herself have a chance to change their fortunes. A recent CNN poll says that 38% of Cain's followers will likely go to Gingrich. Even though Paul and Bachmann are hoping to benefit from Cain's supporters, it makes more sense for Gingrich to get most of Cain's supporters.

Source: CNN

Who's Fired?

Ron Paul has a message for Donald Trump: You're fired as a GOP presidential debate moderator.

The Texas congressman's campaign said today he will not participate in a December 27 debate because the participation of Trump is "wildly inappropriate."

"The selection of a reality television personality to host a presidential debate that voters nationwide will be watching is beneath the office of the Presidency and flies in the face of that office's history and dignity," said Paul's national campaign chairman in a statement.

Trump had a statement to Paul saying that Paul "has a zero chance of winning wither the nomination or the presidency."

Trump said he was glad neither Paul nor Hunstman were attending the debate because he didn't feel they would win anyway. and went on to say that because he has a lot money he would be the right person to lead the country out of economic chaos or at least to moderate a debate.

Fairness for Democrats

As Democrats struggle to retain control of the Senate and retake control of the House, they are searching for issues to frame their campaigns. With President Obama's low approval ratings, due in large part to poor economic conditions, Democratic candidates won't want to focus on his record. Republicans at least have Obama as a straw man around which to build their campaigns.

The most potent theme that the party has to offer is the issue of fairness, specifically in the area of dealing with economic recovery. Democrats can claim that as Americans struggle to survive in this economy, the party has championed policies that aim to provide support for the middle class in hard times.

The first issue is taxes. Republicans have pushed for Congress to extend President George W. Bush's tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. Even though taking this step would only aggravate the deficit problem, the GOP has stood firm. This tax position creates room for Democrats to challenge Republicans as being more supportive of helping the wealthy than average Americans. Second, is unemployment insurance. Throughout the past four years, Republicans have presented roadblocks to the extension of these benefits even as Americans have struggled with extraordinarily difficult economic challenges. While many Americans don't like government, many understand and support the need for temporary assistance as people try to make ends meet. This is an area where Democrats can talk about a specific policy and win support for spending from an electorate that might be philosophically opposed to big government. Finally there is health care, an issue that is likely to be part of the campaign if the Supreme Court issues a ruling on the constitutionality of the law before the election. One of the biggest contributions of the program is to extend health insurance to over 30 million Americans who don't have it. Fairness is the theme that offers a struggling Democratic Party the best opportunity to improve its standing in Congress.

This ties into what we have been studying – elections/campaigns for not only the president, but for Congress as well. Congressional candidates are not blamed for the mess of the economy (as president Obama is), but, there is not much they can take credit for to boost popularity – normally incumbents (the person currently holding an elective office) of the House win 60% of the votes and are re-elected. For example, the Super-committee was not able to meet the deadline to cut 1.2 billion from the deficit, and as a result, may have a more difficult time getting re-elected.