Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Romney Definitively Wins Florida Primary

For those who desire a "conservative alternative" to Mitt Romney for the GOP nomination, the chances appear to be diminishing. Tuesday night signaled a decisive victory for Romney, with a big victory in the Florida primary. As of around 9:30, Romney had gained 46.6% of the vote, with Gingrich the closest follower, at 31.8%. Behind those two, Santorum gained 13.3% of the vote, while Paul had received 7% of the vote. What does this mean for the GOP field? It's hard to say right now, but definitely keep your eyes on the major news outlets over the next few days. Before the primary, some in the media we're asking if Gingrich would get out of the race were he to lose Tuesday night--will that happen? Gingrich, along with both Santorum and Paul, based on what they're saying appear to be in the race for the long haul. While the Republican base certainly appears most comfortable with Romney, it looks as if we could be in for a long, drawn out competition leading up to the GOP national convention.

Florida Primary

Mitt Romney jumped out to a strong lead in Florida's Republican primary, according to unofficial early returns. If the trend holds, a Romney victory in Florida would regain his status as the front-runner in the race to take on President Barack Obama in November. With 41% of the unofficial count, Romney had 50% of the vote compared to 30% for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 12% for former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and 7% for Texas Rep. Ron Paul. "I think the winner of Florida is in all likelihood going to be the nominee of our party," Florida Republican Sen. Marco Rubio said, "Florida is a mini America." With three different winners in the three contests so far, Florida is a vital state in the nominating process and although Romney is leading, the night is still young with less than half of the votes having been counted so far.


Florida and expectations

President Obama and the eventual Republican presidential nominee will be spending a great deal of time campaigning in Florida. That’s because this state goes back and forth between Democratic and Republican candidates in presidential elections. Obama carried it four years ago; George W. Bush carried it in 2000 (but just barely, as we all recall) and again in 2004.
That makes Florida very different than the three largest states in the United States: California, New York and Texas. The presidential candidates won’t be spending a lot of time in those states. They will drop by occasionally to raise some money, but they know that New York and California always go Democratic in presidential elections, and Texas always goes Republican.
It will be interesting tonight as the primary goes on. A high population would indicate a better turnout in the election for the republicans and the opposite for the democrats.

Obama's campaign reports

The Obama campaign has reported to the Federal Election Commission that they have raised $68 million from 583,000 donors in the 4th quarter of 2011.

What's new is the list of approximately 400 big bundlers they published on the Obama campaign website - along with the amounts each raised. Bundlers: big fundraisers who "bundle" large amounts of donations together. Some examples include: longtime Democrat and Dreamworks co-founder Jeffrey Katzenberg raised half a million dollars as did Vogue editor Anna Wintour. Ari Emanuel - the Hollywood superagent and brother of the one-time chief-of staff - raised one hundred to two hundred thousand dollars.

The Obama campaign is trying to use the announcement of their bundlers to draw a contrast with the Republicans in the race. Obama's campaign points out they "voluntarily disclose" their bundlers "unlike the Republican candidates running in 2012." What are they hiding? Democratic strategists tell CNN polling has shown that demonstrating that the President has "high ethical standards" scores well among independent voters.

The Florida Primary

Many people are asking whether or not the Florida primary will determine a GOP front-runner. So far, it looks like Romney is in the lead. Since there were three different winners in the three other contests so far, people are hoping Florida will be able to put one of the remaining candidates firmly into the front-runner position. The latest poll that was released showed Romney with a twelve point lead ahead of Newt with Santorum and Paul far behind. The poll showed 51% for Romney and 29% for Gingrich. If Romney does win this primary he will put the nomination firmly in his grip. Gingrich and Santorum won't stop trying to take it from him though. The day before the primary, Romney and Gingrich continued to clash. Over the weekend Gingrich made a vow to take his campaign all the way to the Republican convention. Romney said that this is a sign of his desperation. More people have voted in this primary than have voted in either of the three before this one. Paul and Santorum already know they won't win this primary and have moved on to the next contest. If Newt loses Florida the next few primaries don't look good for him. Tonight we will see the results of the Florida primary.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Obama's Presidential Address

Last night, President Obama gave an address concerning various topics from the economy to clean energy to foreign affairs. He focused primarily on how America needs unity among the people. He takes a more moderate approach appealing to both parties and mentioning areas where almost everyone agrees on one solution. I feel like he gave more answers in last night's address than he has in a long time; he mentioned several plans that he has proposed or will propose to Congress and suggested some ideas for bills he would, without a shadow of a doubt, approve as soon as it reached his desk. Some of these are the Trade Enforcement Unit which will regulate unfair foreign exchanges, expanding tax reliefs to small businesses who are creating jobs, and asking to pass clean energy tax credits.

The GOP response immediately following Obama's address specifically targeted and contradicted Obama's proposal to raises taxes on millionaires and billionaires. Mitch Daniels, who delivered the response, said that he felt Obama was trying to divide America by supporting some but "castigating" others (meaning wealthy Americans). A quote from Presidential candidate Mitt Romney, "The president's agenda sounds less like 'built to last' and more like doomed to fail. What he's proposing is more of the same: more taxes, more spending, and more regulation." I would personally like to hear a Republican candidate propose better solutions because, based on what I have heard and read, it doesn't seem like any of them are planning to do anything drastic enough to make a distinguishable difference.

Gingrich for the Win!

Although Romney has led the GOP campaigning for most of the season, a surprise turn of events occurred at the South Carolina Primary. Seemingly out of nowhere, Gingrich won! Everyone has been getting over the shock of this incredible come-back that Newt has made in the race for the presidency. However, if you watched the GOP debate between the last four candidates (Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul), it may not be so surprising that supporters put their votes in for Newt. At the debate, one of the first questions asked was to Gingrich concerning his personal affairs with women and his asking his wife for an open relationship. Gingrich reacted angrily and strongly, shocked that they would begin a debate like that. Although this may seem like "new dirt", the crowd actually loved the way Gingrich stood up to the question, and cheered for his strength and confidence. I'm sure this birthed a new hope that someone can stand up to Obama, too. I think in the beginning of the debate, Gingrich's strong opinion made him seem like a loose cannon, but I think people are realizing that we need strong opinions in the White House if any progress is going to be made in this country.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Romney ADs will try to beat Gingrich

With the next primary in Florida, Mitt Romney's super PAC, Restore Our Future, purchased major ad air time. Romney's super PAC is hoping to win out right in Florida. These ads will most likely be pro-Romney ads or ads against Newt Gingrich who won last Primary. Gingrich is hoping to win Florida like he did South Carolina. Polls show this race will be close and the winner could have a giant step to the nomination.

Romney's Tax Returns

Mitt Romney's campaign released hundreds of pages of tax documents this morning, providing an inside glimpse into his many investments, in an effort to dampen the attacks on his wealth that have become a main focus of the Republican presidential nominating battle. Romney had an effective federal income tax rate in 2010 of 13.9 percent, paying about $3 million in taxes on an adjusted gross income of $21.6 million. For 2011, Romney estimates that he will pay about $3.2 million, for an effective rate of 15.4 percent. That’s in line with his earlier estimates, but sharply lower than the rates paid by President Obama and Romney’s Republican rival, Newt Gingrich. The revelation that Romney pays a significantly lower tax rate than most wealthy Americans underscores his image as a multimillionaire financier, an image that some Republicans believe would hurt his chances in the general election.

Source: CNN

Last Night's Debate

Last night the first presidential debate since the South Carolina primary occurred. CNN points out five major things we learned from last night. 1) "A New Twist on 'Newt Romney". For a while Gingrich has proposed having a one-on-one debate with Romney and last night was a taste of what one would be like. For much of the evening Romney fired back at Gingrich. His unrelenting attacks might have something to do with the fact that Gingrich beat him in the South Carolina primary. 2) "Hitting the mute button". In the South Carolina debate the audience was very rowdy and seemed to push the four candidates to go after each other more. Because of this, before last night's debate even started the moderator asked the audience to withhold any applause to ensure that the debate was about the four candidates and what they have to say. This change to the debate's rules was surprisingly significant. This silence made it difficult for the candidates to guage their applause lines and it made it difficult to guage who won the back and forth rounds between Romney and Gingrich. 3) "Trying to shoulder into a two-man race". During last night's debate Santorum tried to remind everyone that this isn't a two-man race. He blames the media for narrowing the field. Most of the night Santorum took a backseat. He did have two attacks that were well launched but didn't seem to land effectively. When Ron Paul was asked if he thought he had a viable chance in winning the election he pointed out that a lot of his support is going to come from young adults. 4) "Practice makes perfect?". Finally, after giving many faulty answers about his tax returns, Romney gave some fluid responses. By giving answers last night, Romney hoped to defuse the issue that had created a week of bad press leading up to the South Carolina primary. 5) "All Politics is Local". A third of last night's debate was focused on issues important to Florida.

Romney fights back.

Two days after suffering a damaging defeat to Newt Gingrich in the South Carolina primary, Mitt Romney took an assertive stance against the former House speaker on Monday night in the latest Republican debate. Romney wasted little time before laying into Gingrich on an array of potential vulnerabilities in advance of the Jan. 31 Florida primary, including a challenge to Gingrich’s conservative bona fides on the environment, his condemnation (for which he later apologized) of Paul Ryan’s entitlement reform plan as “right-wing social engineering,” and his consulting work on behalf of troubled mortgage giant Freddie Mac.
“The speaker was given the opportunity to be the leader of our party in 1994, and at the end of four years, he resigned in disgrace,” Romney said. Though Gingrich did not appear frazzled at any point during the debate, Romney’s transition to a more antagonistic mode against him marked a stark contrast from the past two weeks when the former speaker who appeared to have Romney on his heels time and again.

Obama & GOP race

Amidst the shocking outcomes of the GOP race, Mr. Obama's presidency has been improving lately — thanks to encouraging economic news as well as divisive infighting among Republicans. “I’m absolutely confident we’re going to win this thing,” Mr. Obama said. While Mr. Obama stressed that his success was dependent on supporters’ helping him as they did in 2008, the confidence within the White House reflects the clashes dividing Republicans.

In the presidential race and in Congress, Republicans have turned on one another with a fierceness that distresses party leaders, who fear that it can only benefit Mr. Obama. After South Carolina’s primary results on Saturday scrambled the contest, the battle between the two front-runners — former Gov. Romney of Massachusetts and former Speaker of the House, Gingrich — escalated to full-scale war as the fight shifts to Florida. The outcome of Republicans’ nomination fight will go far in deciding Mr. Obama’s fate, by defining the choice for voters.

Right now, the economy is Mr. Obama’s main antagonist. He is running for a second term with an unemployment rate — 8.5 percent in December — that is higher than it has been for any president who was able to win re-election. However, “U.S. economic data have been on a positive streak,” and“modest improvement in growth is likely as we move into 2012.” -Jerry Webman, chief economist. Who knows what positive change can come about by November.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Review of Monday Night's GOP Debate

On Monday night, the four candidates remaining in the race for the GOP nomination took the stage in Florida, home of the next primary. After a big, somewhat shocking victory for Newt Gingrich in South Carolina, it was clear that he was going to be targeted strongly, along with the rest of the shots which we've all grown accustomed to over the course of this campaign season. The following is a brief summary of how I felt each candidate performed in this debate, in random order.

Ron Paul: Congressman Paul, I felt, performed very well tonight. His strict following and interpretation of the Constitution, which he is well known for, played well in tonight's debate and the topics which were covered, especially when the topic of Federalism was discussed, specifically the need to defend States' rights and investing more power and authority in the States.]. In addition, foreign policy answers on Iran and Cuba from Paul seemed well thought-out and reasonable. Paul performed well tonight, although his chance to be elected remains in my eyes virtually nonexistent.

Rick Santorum: Santorum seems to me to be on the down turn. Don't get me wrong, Santorum at times seemed very strong, firm, and confident, strongly attacking both Gingrich and Romney for being too similar to Obama in his last answer of the night. However, I feel as if his momentum has reached its peak. Had Gingrich not won South Carolina I would feel differently; however, with Gingrich's reemergence and Romney's consistency, I see no room for a jump for Santorum. Regardless, I felt as if Santorum was concise when needed, well-spoken and well thought out when needed, and overall put in a strong performance despite perhaps less attention than the two debates last week leading up to South Carolina's primary.

Mitt Romney: This race seems to be wearing on Romney. My first thought when I first saw him was that he looked weary, tired, and in need of a break. Maybe he was fine, but to me, he just seems tired. In addition, I didn't feel as if he performed particularly well in this debate. His "self deportation" answer on foreign policy was the "what?" moment of the night, one which he had to struggle to explain, but never really successfully made sense of. Although he had some good moments, Romney was unimpressive tonight and did not do enough to stop what could be a continued flow of support towards Newt Gingrich after his surprising finish in South Carolina.

Newt Gingrich: If I had to choose one word to summarize the debate of Newt Gingrich tonight, it would be logical. He didn't try to say anything groundbreaking or innovative; rather, he tried to make himself out to be a practical, thoughtful, and wise individual who looks at situations and does what makes sense. His answers about unifying the nation around English, and his answer on space, are examples of his practicality which he illustrated tonight, and seemed reasonable. While not a stunning performance for Gingrich, it was a consistent performance without blips which he needed to continue his strong support from South Carolina and keep people wanting to know what else he has to offer.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

SOPA and PIPA

Two bills that are still lingering in Congress are the Stop Online Piracy Act and the Protect IP Act. Both seek to fight off foreign websites that infringe on copyrighted material. They mostly focus on media piracy, but the sale of counterfeit good and medication is also included in the legislation. Wikipedia and Google have both spoken out against the legislation saying it itself is an infringement on Americans' right to free speech and that it is harmful to small businesses who thrive on their websites. Google has set up a petition that anyone can sign. Wikipedia has threatened to black out all of their English speaking Encyclopedia sections for 24 hours in protest. Others who are explicitly against the bills are Craigslist, eBay, Mozilla, and Twitter amongst others. SOPA is the more extreme of the two: it defines "foreign infringing site" as any site that is "committing or facilitating" copyright infringement. PIPA is more specific saying that it will limit websites that have "no significant use other than" copyright infringement. Currently, SOPA is stalled in the House Judiciary Committee as members continue to work on it. Although, it is said that there is another bill that will be proposed that takes a more narrow approach to the issues at hand. Members will begin voting for PIPA on January 24th.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Jon Huntsman Drops Out of GOP Race

On Monday, Jon Huntsman removed his name from the group of those seeking the GOP nominee. During his speech announcing that he was "suspending" his campaign, Huntsman condemned the "toxic" tone which the race has taken on, and encouraged the candidates to move away from that tone. In addition, he endorsed Mitt Romney for the GOP nomination. Huntsman's removal from the field leaves five candidates fighting for the GOP nomination--Mitt Romney, the clear front-runner, along with Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, and Rick Perry. All four outside of Romney have the critical job of portraying themselves as the favorable alternative to Romney. Because of that, we're likely to see the attacks on Romney grow stronger as each candidate tries to put Romney in a negative light to the GOP primary voters. However, at this point it seems very unlikely that any of the remaining candidates can catch Mitt Romney.

Ruffled Romney

The republican frontrunner, Mitt Romney, hasn't let one of his rivals get under his skin since a CNN debate in Las Vegas in November, when Rick Perry pointed out that Romney once hired a contractor that employed illegal immigrants. Since then, in debates and on the campaign trail, Romney has largely floated above his rivals and trained his fire on Barack Obama instead. But Rick Santorum finally managed to get Romney flustered early in the debate. Santorum said a pro-Romney super PAC was distorting his Senate vote to allow convicted felons to vote after they served out their time in prison. Romney seemed to be caught flat-footed whether he too supported felon voting rights as governor of Massachusetts. Romney was evasive, pausing to gather his thoughts and game out a response. "We have plenty of time; I'll get there," Romney said to Santorum. "I'll do it in the order I want to do."

Can Gingrich make a Comeback?

Newt Gingrich had one of his best debates of the 2012 presidential race on Monday night. The former House speaker began with the debate moderator challenging him on his earlier pledges to remain positive in the presidential campaign. Gingrich also headed off some questions about race that could have tripped up a lesser debater. Through it all, Gingrich was cool, calm and collected, picking his spots and coming off as the clear onstage alternative to frontrunner Mitt Romney— just as the other candidate for that position, former senator Rick Santorum was largely an afterthought and struggled to get his voice heard. This exactly what Gingrich needs. But even more so than Santorum, it appears Gingrich might have a little room to grow.

Tension Between GOP Candidates & Keys to Romney's Success

The GOP candidates are all unhappy about a few different issues right now, but mostly they are unhappy with each other. Each of the candidates are unhappy with each other and just want to tear each other down. The only thing they all may be united upon is the goal of defeating Obama. The tea partiers have all decided to give Romney a chance. Romney tied with Paul for second in Iowa and came in first in New Hampshire. In South Carolina the Gov. has endorsed Romney and the Sen. is just staying out of it. It has been said that Romney learned from his failure to launch four years ago. This year he has decided that in order to control the debate he has to look forward not backward. Romney doesn't flip-flop on issues. He defends his health-care plan without backing away from it and in response to attacks on his past record he points to his present record. Last week an international poll rated Romney to be the person best able to handle health care - he must be doing something right!

Huntsman: Out

In a Republican primary focused on which conservative would emerge as the anti-Romney, Jon Huntsman was unable to position himself as anything more than a mini-Romney. His blend of moderate and conservative positions, as well as his Mormon faith, combined to cast Huntsman as too similar to Mormon Mitt Romney and therefore unable to overcome the former Massachusetts governor's huge advantage in name recognition, funding and organization.

Huntsman's fate was sealed last week in the New Hampshire primary, when he finished third. From the beginning, Huntsman knew that his hopes rested in New Hampshire. The former Utah governor virtually skipped Iowa and its January 3 caucuses, instead spending months in New Hampshire to hold more than 150 events as he crossed the state extolling his independence, trustworthiness and experience. In the end, Huntsman got just 17% of the vote in New Hampshire, behind Romney at 39% and Texan Paul at 23%. The results of the poll led to Huntsman's decision to drop out and back Romney.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

On to South Carolina

The state is gearing up for what might be the decisive fight of the Republican primary race -- a showdown between Mitt Romney and a clutch of conservative challengers scrambling to derail the front-runner before the race heads to Florida and other expensive states where television ads trump handshakes. "The other campaigns have decided Romney is the dragon they have to slay," said one well-connected Columbia insider who talks regularly with all of the presidential campaigns. "This is their last chance to stop Romney." But the question that concerned conservatives in Iowa remains true and even more pressing in South Carolina: Who will be the one to stop him?

Primary

Jon Huntsman appears to be the momentum candidate in New Hampshire ahead of today’s Republican presidential primary vote. Tracking polls conducted in the race show him moving up, he put in his best debate showing of the race thus far on Sunday, he's up on television and he even won the endorsement of the Boston Globe in recent days. The fight for second behind former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney now appears to be between Huntsman and Texas Rep. Ron Paul. So, Huntsman now seems set to overperform the (admittedly low) expectations for him in New Hampshire. But can he turn a second or third place finish? No, according to most seasoned Republican operatives who have spent considerable time working in Palmetto State politics.“Any candidate with an unexpectedly strong showing in New Hampshire gets a spike in public attention which tends to provide some boost in South Carolina,” said Jon Lerner, who is pollster and media consultant for Romney-supporting South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. “However, Jon Huntsman’s profile as the most liberal candidate in the field really limits his growth potential and makes him very unlikely to gain any meaningful traction.”

So who will win New Hampshire? We'll see.

Huntsman on the Rise

Recently in New Hampshire the GOP primary has created a lot of buzz around Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Santorum. However recent polls have had former Utah Senator John Huntsman on the rise in polls in places in New Hampshire. Huntsman is considered to be the most liberal of the Republican voters is likely getting more votes in New Hampshire because the populous is generally more liberal. Huntsman who has never been favored in many polls is starting to get more attention which could make the race ahead a little more interesting.

High Stakes New Hampshire Race

Tonight the results from the New Hampshire Primary will be revealed. The turnout has been steady and so far Romney has a win and a tie. He beat Ron Paul 5 - 4 in Hart's location and tied with Huntsman in Dixville Notch. In the Democratic primary Obama received all the votes in both locations (Harts and Dixville Notch). Late polls have shown Huntsman and Paul running neck-and-neck for second place. Since Iowa, Gingrich has been pounding against Romney. He doesn't think Romney is the right guy to go up against Obama. Perry sided with Gingrich in attacking Romney's business record. As of now, Romney tops most national polling and is ahead in the latest surveys in South Carolina and Florida, the next two states to hold contests following New Hampshire. On Monday in one off his speeches he had a slip up. He said, "I like being able to fire people who provide services to me,". "You know, if someone doesn't give me the good service I need, I want to say, 'You know, I'm going to go get someone else to provide that service to me.' " The first seven words of that sentence -- "I like being able to fire people," dangled like low-hanging fruit, and some of Romney's rivals pounced.

Romney & New Hampshire primary

Although Huntsman's rise in the polls has given Romney some competition, Romney still has a good shot at winning the New Hampshire primary. However, will a win by a large margin in New Hampshire be enough to secure support in South Carolina? This morning's polls regarding the New Hampshire primary show Romney leading with 37 percent. Ron Paul is backed by 18 percent of likely voters and Mr. Huntsman is backed by 16 percent. For Mr. Romney, the size of his margin over his rivals could be an important point as he heads into South Carolina, a conservative state that he lost to Senator John McCain four years ago. A big victory in New Hampshire could provide Mr. Romney with bragging rights and a renewed sense of inevitability after his small victory in Iowa.

Even as voters are lining up in New Hampshire, the focus of the political struggle is shifting to South Carolina. A new ad by Gingrich attacks Mr. Romney’s anti-abortion credentials, saying that he “governed pro abortion” during his time leading Massachusetts. Tracking polls on Monday had suggested that Mr. Romney’s lead over his rivals had been narrowing, having dropped by 10 percentage points during the prior five days. Mr. Romney’s rivals are guessing that even a victory for him with a large margin in New Hampshire can be overcome in South Carolina, where conservative and religious voters may not be as receptive to a former governor from Massachusetts.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Result of the Iowa Caucus

It was a close race between Romney and Santorum in the Iowa caucuses this week. However, Romney pulled through by a mere 8 votes. They were tied at about 25% for the majority of the caucuses, but it just wasn't enough for Santorum. Ron Paul also had a good run receiving 21.3% of the votes. Bachmann, with only 5% of the votes, ended up dropping out of the presidential race completely after the lack of support from voters. Huntsman didn't take the Iowa caucuses too seriously and ended up with only 0.6% of the votes. Apparently Buddy Roemer is still in the race, but it doesn't look very hopeful for him considering he only received 31 votes total in the caucuses. All except for Bachmann will be continuing to New Hampshire for another primary. Perry said he is going to head back to Texas to do some "reevaluating" after receiving about 10% of the votes in Iowa. He may raise more votes in New Hampshire if he plays his "reevaluating" cards right. Ten days can change a lot, so we'll see who is able to pull through then and who will end up falling through the cracks.

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Iowa Caucuses--Rick Santorum?

In a GOP Nomination race which has seen so many swings between candidates, the Iowa Caucus appears to be just another turn in the road. As of about 9 PM, albeit with most of the precincts yet to report, Rick Santorum was leading the Iowa Caucus, with 24.2% of the vote, with Ron Paul (23.7%) and Mitt Romney (22.3%) trailing closely behind him. Santorum, who has invested a large amount of time in Iowa over the last few weeks and months, is the latest rise in the series of potential nominees who have seen a sudden jump to the top, including Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich, all along with Mitt Romney, who has consistently held his spot as either the narrow front-runner or a close second. If Santorum is able to continue to do well in Iowa and finish first or a close second or third, he would undoubtedly receive a large jump in the polls, where he sits at a small 6% of the national GOP vote right now according to Gallup. His performance over the rest of the night is certainly something all interested in the GOP nomination should follow.

Still Up in the Air

The GOP race for the presidency may have been interesting so far, but now that we have rolled around to the new year, the polls are fluctuating, the candidates much more fierce, and the public opinion much more particular in their demands for the potential president-to-be. It is definitely not clear who is "winning" or "losing" anymore. This is evident in Gingrich, who only a short while ago claimed that he "would be the nominee". But in more recent reviews, Gingrich has claimed that he does not think he will win. The situation is similar with Romney, who although may possess the face of a president, may not possess the qualities. Everything is up in the air, and everyone is waiting for something major to cause a shift in this constant state of waiting and stop-and-go polls within the campaigns. And with the Iowa caucus just ahead, the entire game can change instantly and drastically not just for the candidates but for the people too.