Misconduct Among the Secret Service

One of the most recent news stories within the capital of our country is a messy story of misconduct among the secret service--those key to the protection of our country's President. Recent results of an inquiry reveal that 11 Secret Service agents and 10 military personnel are suspected of misconduct in an incident last Wednesday in Colombia, prior to the arrival of President Obama for an economic summit. The report reveals that as many as 21 women were brought to their hotel after a night of "widespread debauchery" among the agents. As of today, all 11 of these agents have been placed on leave for misconduct.

This is significant because the Secret Service have historically been nearly unmatched in their ability to remain out of the news and remain squeaky clean. Though isolated events have occurred, the Secret Service have historically consistently maintained the integrity necessary and to be expected of the group that protects this nation's President. How President Obama handles this situation, and whether there will be any additional repercussions for the Secret Service remains to be seen and will be a situation to follow.

Source: Washington Post.

Obama Holds Key Leads in Polls Over Romney

A recent Washington Post-ABC News Poll conducted by phone April 5-8 revealed some disconcerting news for those seeking a Republican President in 2012--Barack Obama leads in key categories, especially those which pertain to his character, his likability, and his ability to inspire people. As said by the Washington Post, "he has a better than 2-to-1 advantage as the more friendly and likable of the two, and nearly that margin as more inspiring." In addition to his lead in terms of his character, Obama "has double-digit leads over the likely Republican presidential nominee on who would do a better job of protecting the middle class, addressing women’s issues, handling international affairs and dealing with health care." In sum, unless there is a drastic change in the opinions of voters (which is certainly possible considering the major swings from candidates in the GOP nominee race), Barack Obama seems highly likely to gain a second term in the oval office.

Source: Washington Post

Romney Takes Three More Primaries

Tonight, as of around 10 PM, Romney has gained yet more ground on Rick Santorum in the race for the GOP nomination. Primaries in Maryland, Wisconsin, and Washington D.C. all look to be ending in convincing victories for the former Governor from Massachusetts, even further cementing his place as the front-runner for the GOP nomination. With each primary, it seems more and more likely that Romney will be the eventual nominee, especially considering the increase in support Romney has seen in just the past couple of weeks. As of around March 18th, according to Gallup, Romney had 34% of Republican support, compared to 30% for Rick Santorum. As of yesterday, however, Romney possessed 41% of Republican support, while Santorum possessed only 25%. The next major primary in the race will be the Pennsylvania primary, which occurs on April 14th. Santorum has much riding on his former state, and if he's able to gain a victory there, he would still have a chance against Romney, although his chances at the Republican nomination seem increasingly smaller with each day at this point.

Sources: Washington Post, Gallup.

The Etch-a-Sketch

Last Wednesday, Romney's campaign adviser Eric Fehrnstrom made one of the biggest gaffes to date of the race for the GOP nomination, comparable even to the Rick Perry "Oops" debate moment. When Fehrnstrom was asked in a CNN interview "whether he is concerned that Romney might be forced by his Republican opponents to take extreme positions during the primary that could alienate moderates in a race against President Barack Obama," Fehrnstrom responded with the following: “I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign. Everything changes. It’s almost like an Etch A Sketch. You can kind of shake it up, and we start all over again.” Ever since this gaffe, Romney's opponents have been attacking him relentlessly, saying that this exemplifies the lack of sincerity in Romney and it shows that he is "the type of politician who will say or do anything to win." While practically speaking, everybody knows that the campaign changes in the fall and the candidates must learn to appeal to a different base of voters, the fact that Fehrnstrom actually came out and said this is a huge problem for the Romney campaign, and one which can easily be exploited both by the current GOP candidates who are challenging Romney, and Obama in the fall if Romney is the eventual nominee after all.

Sources: Washington Post, Huffington Post.

Romney Wins Illinois Primary

Tuesday night, Mitt Romney convincingly defeated Rick Santorum in the Illinois primary. With 54 delegates up for grabs, Romney received 46.7 percent of the vote, while Santorum received 35 percent of the vote. Though Santorum is still fighting and likely will continue to fight up until the Republican National Convention, or at least close to the Convention, it is seeming more and more likely that Mitt Romney will be the eventual delegate for the Republican Party. Though he has been criticized widely throughout his campaign for the nomination and will continue to be harshly criticized, Romney is the only candidate in the race who has managed to gain and maintain a consistent support base throughout the contest. The GOP base at this point seems unlikely in my mind to nominate anybody other than Romney considering the up and down nature of all the other candidates in the field, and barring something unexpected, I see Romney as the clear eventual delegate for the Republican Party against Barack Obama in the fall.

Source: Washington Post

Santorum Wins in Alabama, leading in Mississippi

Despite what looks to have been a significant drop-off in the polling numbers of Rick Santorum over the last few weeks, the former Pennsylvania Senator has been declared the winner in Alabama, and as of around 10:45, leads with 33% in Mississippi, narrowly leading Newt Gingrich at 31 and Mitt Romney at 30. A win in these two states would be significant for the Senator, who most have thought was finished after a sub-par performance on Super Tuesday. However, were he to win both these states, his role as the legitimate challenger to Romney in the race for the GOP nomination would be cemented. Though Romney remains the front-runner, Santorum's victories in some significant states keep him in the race and potentially give him the chance to upend Romney at some point.

Michigan and Arizona Primaries

Today voters will go to the polls in these two states in two crucial primaries in the Republication nomination race. With 59 delegates at stake, these primaries are key not only for the delegates but also for momentum, as Santorum seeks to maintain his placing at the top with Romney, and Romney seeks to once again cement himself as the front runner. According to CNN, "The latest survey suggest(s) a dead heat: An American Research Group survey released Monday indicate(s) that 36% of likely Michigan GOP primary voters were backing Santorum, with 35% supporting Romney." Both races look to be extremely close, and will play a significant role as we move towards Super Tuesday in determining the front runner for the nomination.

Source: http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/28/election/2012/primaries/index.html

Dow crosses 13,000 for the first time since 2008

Today signaled a significant milestone in our countries revival from the crises which has overwhelmed our economy for the past four years--says the Washington Post, " The Dow Jones industrial average crossed 13,000 on Tuesday for the first time since May 2008, when the Lehman Brothers investment bank was solvent, unemployment a healthy 5.4 percent and the worst of the Great Recession months ahead." The article goes on to expound on the psychological impact which this number could have, encouraging more cautious investors to place some trust back in the market and removing some fears that the market will fall back again. John Manley, Chief Equity Strategist for Wells Fargo's funds group, compares it to turning 50: " “Is 50 older than 49 and a half? Yes, by six months. Do those six months really make a difference? Probably not. But it does give us a fixed point, something we can look at.” This is a significant milestone for the stock market, and exemplifies the bounce back which it has experienced from the great recession.

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/us-stock-futures-advance-after-europe-puts-together-deal-for-greek-bailout-dow-nears-13000/2012/02/21/gIQArDW4QR_story.html

The Michigan Primary, February 28th.

On February 28th, in the Michigan primary, the race for the GOP Nomination will experience a significant moment--either a momentous victory for Rick Santorum, or a victory for Romney, although if the latter happens, it will undoubtedly be at a lesser margin than originally anticipated. Michigan was a state which Romney originally expected to be able to take easily. However, Santorum's recent surge has put the state in doubt for Romney's campaign. According to the Washington Post, Santorum will aggressively pursue Michigan because he sees in it "the combination of working-class and socially conservative voters on which he has based his campaign." If Santorum defeats Romney in Michigan, it will be a clear example of what recent poll numbers have shown us--a virtual tie between the two. Michigan will be key as we continue the build up to Super Tuesday, and could even signal Santorum overtaking Romney in the race for the nomination.

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mitt-romney-faces-major-test-in-michigan-primary-once-thought-an-easy-win/2012/02/14/gIQAffpcDR_story.html?hpid=z2

Breakthrough for Santorum?

Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri all had their Republican primaries today. Although few precincts have reported in all three states, Rick Santorum possesses a significant early lead in all three.Though none have much importance in terms of numbers of delegates, simply the honor of winning the primary and the momentum which Santorum can potentially gain from these victories is very important for his campaign. These primaries are significant even moreso because we now move into a lull with few primaries/caucuses, with no more after this weekend until February 28th, building up to Super Tuesday on March 6th. If Santorum can entrench his name in the minds of voters as the newest, most intriguing candidate and the guy with the hot hand leading into the key period in late February/early March, his campaign could see a huge rise, and he could become the legitimate contender against Romney which Santorum has been claiming to be for so long now.

Romney Definitively Wins Florida Primary

For those who desire a "conservative alternative" to Mitt Romney for the GOP nomination, the chances appear to be diminishing. Tuesday night signaled a decisive victory for Romney, with a big victory in the Florida primary. As of around 9:30, Romney had gained 46.6% of the vote, with Gingrich the closest follower, at 31.8%. Behind those two, Santorum gained 13.3% of the vote, while Paul had received 7% of the vote. What does this mean for the GOP field? It's hard to say right now, but definitely keep your eyes on the major news outlets over the next few days. Before the primary, some in the media we're asking if Gingrich would get out of the race were he to lose Tuesday night--will that happen? Gingrich, along with both Santorum and Paul, based on what they're saying appear to be in the race for the long haul. While the Republican base certainly appears most comfortable with Romney, it looks as if we could be in for a long, drawn out competition leading up to the GOP national convention.

Review of Monday Night's GOP Debate

On Monday night, the four candidates remaining in the race for the GOP nomination took the stage in Florida, home of the next primary. After a big, somewhat shocking victory for Newt Gingrich in South Carolina, it was clear that he was going to be targeted strongly, along with the rest of the shots which we've all grown accustomed to over the course of this campaign season. The following is a brief summary of how I felt each candidate performed in this debate, in random order.

Ron Paul: Congressman Paul, I felt, performed very well tonight. His strict following and interpretation of the Constitution, which he is well known for, played well in tonight's debate and the topics which were covered, especially when the topic of Federalism was discussed, specifically the need to defend States' rights and investing more power and authority in the States.]. In addition, foreign policy answers on Iran and Cuba from Paul seemed well thought-out and reasonable. Paul performed well tonight, although his chance to be elected remains in my eyes virtually nonexistent.

Rick Santorum: Santorum seems to me to be on the down turn. Don't get me wrong, Santorum at times seemed very strong, firm, and confident, strongly attacking both Gingrich and Romney for being too similar to Obama in his last answer of the night. However, I feel as if his momentum has reached its peak. Had Gingrich not won South Carolina I would feel differently; however, with Gingrich's reemergence and Romney's consistency, I see no room for a jump for Santorum. Regardless, I felt as if Santorum was concise when needed, well-spoken and well thought out when needed, and overall put in a strong performance despite perhaps less attention than the two debates last week leading up to South Carolina's primary.

Mitt Romney: This race seems to be wearing on Romney. My first thought when I first saw him was that he looked weary, tired, and in need of a break. Maybe he was fine, but to me, he just seems tired. In addition, I didn't feel as if he performed particularly well in this debate. His "self deportation" answer on foreign policy was the "what?" moment of the night, one which he had to struggle to explain, but never really successfully made sense of. Although he had some good moments, Romney was unimpressive tonight and did not do enough to stop what could be a continued flow of support towards Newt Gingrich after his surprising finish in South Carolina.

Newt Gingrich: If I had to choose one word to summarize the debate of Newt Gingrich tonight, it would be logical. He didn't try to say anything groundbreaking or innovative; rather, he tried to make himself out to be a practical, thoughtful, and wise individual who looks at situations and does what makes sense. His answers about unifying the nation around English, and his answer on space, are examples of his practicality which he illustrated tonight, and seemed reasonable. While not a stunning performance for Gingrich, it was a consistent performance without blips which he needed to continue his strong support from South Carolina and keep people wanting to know what else he has to offer.

Jon Huntsman Drops Out of GOP Race

On Monday, Jon Huntsman removed his name from the group of those seeking the GOP nominee. During his speech announcing that he was "suspending" his campaign, Huntsman condemned the "toxic" tone which the race has taken on, and encouraged the candidates to move away from that tone. In addition, he endorsed Mitt Romney for the GOP nomination. Huntsman's removal from the field leaves five candidates fighting for the GOP nomination--Mitt Romney, the clear front-runner, along with Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, and Rick Perry. All four outside of Romney have the critical job of portraying themselves as the favorable alternative to Romney. Because of that, we're likely to see the attacks on Romney grow stronger as each candidate tries to put Romney in a negative light to the GOP primary voters. However, at this point it seems very unlikely that any of the remaining candidates can catch Mitt Romney.

Iowa Caucuses--Rick Santorum?

In a GOP Nomination race which has seen so many swings between candidates, the Iowa Caucus appears to be just another turn in the road. As of about 9 PM, albeit with most of the precincts yet to report, Rick Santorum was leading the Iowa Caucus, with 24.2% of the vote, with Ron Paul (23.7%) and Mitt Romney (22.3%) trailing closely behind him. Santorum, who has invested a large amount of time in Iowa over the last few weeks and months, is the latest rise in the series of potential nominees who have seen a sudden jump to the top, including Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich, all along with Mitt Romney, who has consistently held his spot as either the narrow front-runner or a close second. If Santorum is able to continue to do well in Iowa and finish first or a close second or third, he would undoubtedly receive a large jump in the polls, where he sits at a small 6% of the national GOP vote right now according to Gallup. His performance over the rest of the night is certainly something all interested in the GOP nomination should follow.

Newt Gingrich-Jon Hunstman Debate

In a debate Tuesday afternoon loosely modeled after the "Lincoln-Douglass" debates, Newt Gingrich and Jon Hunstman participated in a free-flowing discussion of foreign policy and national security. The format was designed with only suggested time limits of five minutes (with each candidate free to use more or less time as desired), and very broad topics (the "moderator", who really just provided the conversation with general direction, simply stated things like "what are your views on China"). It was a format which enabled the candidates to speak at much more length and with more clarity on the issues than they would in the typical format, and although the candidates rarely "debated" as we would typically think and have seen several times so far through the campaign, it was a very good discussion of the issues, and one which both Gingrich and Hunstman will pursue more of as the campaign goes on. At one point, Gingrich stated that were he to win the party's nomination, he would challenge Barack Obama to "seven three hour debates" of that format. The moderator followed by telling Gingrich that he would "bet $10,000 dollars" that Obama would not take that bet, making fun of the comments made by Mitt Romney in the last GOP debate. Whether we see more debates of this format or not, seeing these two illustrate their vast knowledge on several different issues was very good, and would be a challenging yet productive tool for each of the other candidates to show that they really have the depth of knowledge to be President of the United States.

Newt Gingrich's Rise

Just as Herman Cain has removed himself from the race due to the allegations against him, Newt Gingrich is running very strong, showing in the latest Gallup poll to be a whole 15 points ahead of Mitt Romney. The poll, conducted from December 1st through December 5th, shows Newt Gingrich at 37 percent, with only Mitt Romney at 22 percent totaling double digits. As Herman Cain's supporters decide who they will now support, those numbers could change, but as of now Newt Gingrich looks very strong. Will he end this race as the GOP Nominee for President? Right now, I would be very hesitant to say that. Throughout this race, many different candidates have had their time in the sunshine: Rick Perry was at or very close to the top soon after he entered the race, Herman Cain was nearly equal with Mitt Romney for a long while before the sexual allegations against him brought him down, and Mitt Romney of course has been very steady in his position, seeing neither major drops in support nor major rises. With the previous rise and downfall of Perry and Cain, I would be very hesitant to declare Gingrich the next GOP nominee for President. With that said, however, Newt seems to be consistently gaining support and approval from the GOP base, and if he's able to keep himself in check and keep his skeletons in the closet, he has a very good chance to end up as the party's nominee.

Sources: Gallup.

The End for Herman Cain

Well, there it is again--another accusation against Herman Cain, but this time it seems to be much more far-reaching, much more convincing. A Georgia woman named Ginger White went on a local Fox affiliate and spoke openly about having a 13 year affair with Herman Cain. According to White, Cain would fly her to places where he was speaking and lavish her with gifts. Cain, yet again, has flatly denied these claims, stating that he knew White but had no inappropriate relationship with her. Cain's resilience, however, seems to be wearing thin. Speaking to supporters today, Cain stated that he is 'reassessing' his 2012 bid for the Presidency. Although I'm still clueless as to who to believe in all the accusations against Cain, I do find it hard to believe that a woman would be willing to go on television and so blatantly lie about something this far-reaching and serious. However, Cain's constant claims that he is innocent seem sincere to me, and I'm having trouble believing that he is lying about all of this as well. Regardless of who's telling the truth, Cain's ability to weather this storm seems to be running on empty, and he seems to be getting a bit worn down by all of the defending he's having to do. The end certainly seems to be near for Herman Cain, that much is true, and if he has been telling the truth the whole time, it is a great tragedy that any one would go to the lengths which they may have gone to deface Herman Cain, or any other man for that matter.

Occupy Movement: More Trouble Than Change?

The Occupy Wall Street Movement has gathered very much attention and momentum, evidenced in one way by the frequent mentioning or references to the movement in the GOP Presidential Debates--that much is clear. However, the movement is becoming more and more of an issue. The Washington Post mentioned today that "there are sanitation hazards and drug overdoses, even occasional deaths and sexual assaults." The Post article asks the question "Is this an occupation or an infestation?" The trouble is that breaking up the protests is a very sticky issue. While local police forces certainly have an obligation to protect their people, they also have an obligation to follow the Constitution and give people their Civil Rights, in this case the right to Free Speech. Finding middle ground on this issue is certainly a tough problem for local officials, and already three civil rights groups have filed lawsuits on behalf of the protesters. How forces deal with these protesters, who say they'll go on through the winter despite the cold, will be crucial and could result in either an outrage over what many would claim to be unconstitutional control if they forcibly made the protests stop, or it could result in a rising death toll as protesters subject themselves to freezing and dangerous conditions. Obviously neither alternative is acceptable, but it seems that it will take a miracle at this point for any other result to happen.

Sexual Harassment Claims Against Herman Cain

To many, it seemed inevitable--eventually something would come up that would potentially slow the surge of Republican Presidential nominee seeker Herman Cain. As he is relatively unknown even now in the political world, many expected that there would be skeletons in the closet so to speak which would emerge as Cain's life became more and more of a public matter. Those skeletons right now are accusations against Cain of sexual harassment which actually occurred in the 1990s, but the issue right now is that the woman who claimed this is under a binding no disclosure agreement which she signed upon leaving the National Restaurant Association, of which Cain was President from 1996-1999. Because of this, she is barred from relating her side of the story, which she now wants to release to the media after Cain said last week that the allegations against him were "false and baseless." Joel P. Bennett, the lawyer representing one of the two women who made claims against Cain, is "calling on the association to waive the agreement so the woman, a federal worker living in suburban Maryland, can rebut Cain’s statements." This is certainly a story to follow as it plays out as it could potentially play a major role in the campaign of Herman Cain, and has the potential to slow the momentum Cain currently has.

Government Distrust

A recent New York Times/CBS News Poll reveals some striking information--distrust of government is at its highest level right now than ever before in our nation's history. Our President's disapproval rating is currently at 46 percent, and Congress's approval rating has dropped to a mere 9 percent. These are striking statistics especially as we move into the 2012 election year. Which candidate will be able to get the confidence of the american people, making them believe that they will be able to turn things around? It is a question which remains to be answered. Will Obama be able to regain the trust which he has lost over his time as this nation's president, or will it be a yet to be determined Republican candidate, offering a fresh approach and new ideas for governing the nation? Regardless of who ends up winning the election, it seems that one of the deciding factors will certainly be which candidate is able to gain the trust of the American people.

Source: New York Times.