The Tricky Tax System

Today was the deadline for 2011 tax returns and a recent poll says that most people believe the revenue system benefits the wealthy and is unfair to average workers. 68% said it benefits the rich while 29% disagreed. About taxes being too high, it is mainly those between the age of 35 and 65 that think their taxes are too high. Younger Americans who have lower paying jobs and senior citizens who are fixed on a set income don't complain nearly as much as those who are in their peak earning years. However, people like David Levine (the former chief economist for the investment-management firm Sanford C. Bernstein) are actually asking for higher taxes. As you can see, taxes are a tricky area. From the mouth of Nixon, "We shall never make taxation popular but we can make taxation fair."

Romney - Most Likely the GOP Nominee

Recent polls show that 3/4 of people view Romney as the GOP nominee, that Romney is trailing Obama, and that voters favor Romney on economic issues but like Obama more. As of now 51% of people would vote for Obama and 44% of people would vote for Romney. Santorum, who is still in the race, had to cancel some of his campaign events yesterday and today because of his daughter being in the hospital. On April 24th Pennsylvania will hold its primary. Santorum must win this primary or there is no hope for his candidacy. One main thing that has helped Romney create his lead over Santorum is how much money he has been able to spend. The Romney campaign and the superPAC supporting it have spent millions of dollars on negative ads. Santorum has less than half of Romney's delegate total. However, the primary races after April 24 have blocked for Santorum so far. 231 delegates are up for grabs after April 24 in New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. Gingrich, who only has 140 delegates, has said he will stay in the race until the Republican National Convention in August. It looks as if the goal for both Gingrich and Santorum is to prevent Romney from reaching 1,144 delegate threshold before the Convention.

The Importance of Wisconsin as The GOP Race Continues

So far polls have shown that Romney is in the lead . Because of this, Santorum really needs to get Wisconsin (which it looks like he will). If Santorum doesn't get Wisconsin the race for the GOP nomination might be over. In Massachusetts and Maryland Romney is the favorite. But in Wisconsin Romney holds only a single-digit lead over Santorum. Most people already think the race is over because of how much of a lead Romney has. Romney even said on Sunday that the nominee "will probably be me". Because of Romney's confidence in winning the GOP race, he has started to focus his rhetoric at Obama. Santorum, on the other hand, seems to be downplaying expectations by saying on Monday that he knew "April would be a very tough month". Even though the odds don't seem to be in his favor, Santorum hasn't shown any signs of giving up. One thing that has fueled Santorum's campaign is how he has continually depicted himself as the lone true conservative. But even though Romney has thought of the race for the GOP nominee as over he is still campaigning in Wisconsin. So far he has spent around $4 million. Results from this primary should be posted tonight.

Debate of The Health Care Law

Today the Supreme Court began debating one of the provisions of the 2010 health care law that says that by 2014 Americans must purchase health insurance or face a financial penalty. A poll that was released yesterday indicates that 47% of people support the mandate while 51% oppose it. There is a gender gap on this issue with 53% of women supporting the mandate and 58% of me opposing it. There is also a partisan divide on the issue with 71% of Democrats favoring it and 78% of Republicans opposing it. The main issue is, can the federal government, under the Constitution's commerce clause, regulate economic "inactivity"? 26 states, led by Florida, argue that people can't be forced to buy insurance. Supporters of the mandate "see it as a way to spread health care costs among a larger pool of individuals, ensuring affordable, quality medical care". "Opponents see fundamental constitutional violations, such as an intrusion into a citizen's personal life and an intrusion in long-held state power". This issue is really important because it brings up the question of whether the federal government can regulate anything it wants to or whether there are some things that only the state government can regulate.

Source: CNN

Gas Prices

Today during a committee hearing on the Department of Energy's use of stimulus funding the topic of conversation kept returning to the rising gas prices. Republicans were hammering secretary Steven Chu over this. This topic put the partisan divide in Washington on full display. Republicans were the ones hammering the secretary over the gas prices. Democrats were asking the secretary questions that provided him the chance to defend administration policies. When the secretary noted the investments to boost the use of electric cars Republican representative Patrick McHenry of North Carolina said that the use of electric cars mean nothing to his constituents who have long commutes by car every day. McHenry complained that he can't just tell everyone in his district to buy a new electric vehicle. Obama has argued that there is no single step to lower gas prices in the short term. With the presidential election just around the corner, Republican leaders have started targeting Obama's energy policies blaming him for high energy costs.

Super Tuesday

Today (Super Tuesday), according to CNN, there are 3 major things to watch about the GOP race. Today ten states are getting a say on who should "challenge President Obama". The first thing we should watch is Romney's Big Day. Romney has been the off and on frontrunner throughout this whole race. Today (Super Tuesday) has potential to begin his end game. If Romney wins in Ohio and Tennessee it could propel him into a huge lead in the race. The second thing we should watch is Turnout. The number of people who show up at the polls today could be an indication for how energized the Republicans are and what that might mean in the fall. Ohio and Tennessee are the states to watch for the best indication of how energized Republicans are. The third thing to watch is whether or not anyone is leaving the race. The answer to that question is no. Whether or not each of the candidates have a good Super Tuesday, they will still each point to victories they have had or will have. No one is dropping out. Tonight results will be posted and we shall see how each candidate does.

Obama's Stand on Education

Yesterday during a luncheon Obama had with U.S. Governors he told them that "they are cutting too much funding for education and need to make reforms while continuing to invest in the future of America's students". Obama did acknowledge the tough economy state governments are dealing with at the time and he also spoke about the need to prioritize the significance of a strong education system. Obama believes that too many states are making big education cuts. Yesterday his main call to the Governors was to "Invest more in education, invest more in our children, invest more in our future". If we don't maintain significant government investment in education now, later on down the road the economy will be in danger and U.S. workers won't be able to compete in a global marketplace. Obama pointed out some statistics some of which being that 1) the unemployment rate for those with a college degree is roughly half the national average and 2) people with college degrees have about twice as high an income as those with only high school diplomas. Obama wants people to "at least" have a high school diploma. He also wants states to make it more affordable for people to go on to higher education after high school. Many of the republicans who usually disagree with Obama agreed with a lot of what he had to say yesterday.

The Importance of Debates

26 days ago the candidates participated in a CNN debate in Jacksonville, Florida. It was their 19th debate so far. These debates have gotten sky-high tv ratings and have even been called "event" television. They define candidates in both good and bad ways. Some get defined as "good speakers" or "act well under pressure". Others "fall from grace in front of the live cameras". Since debates are live and public for the whole world to see, whatever happens in a debate shapes a lot of different people's opinions of each candidate. Many people decide who they are going to vote for based on the debates. In a primary or caucus follows a debate, the candidates want to make sure they do well in the debate or they might have trouble doing well in the primary or caucus. The debates provide insight for how each candidate acts under pressure. What may be the final debate of the season will be this Wednesday night in Mesa, Arizona. Some people are thinking of it as a "season finale". Even though these debates have been "substantive and issue based" they have also been very entertaining and have been called "event" television.

The GOP Battle Continues

Although Santorum "snatched" the delegates from Romney in the past few primaries, Romney is already fighting back. As of a couple days ago, Romney won Maine with Paul behind him and Santorum in third. Romney has also started to campaign in Michigan. His tactic with Michigan is relating to the people there. He said to them, "I am a son of Detroit". Even though he is not usually associated with Michigan, he wants the Republicans there to know he is one of them. Romney published a new tv ad about how he was born in and grew up in Michigan. $900,000 of TV advertising is coming from Super-PACs backing Romney. To win this primary Romney needs to pull ahead of Santorum. In Michigan a weekend poll showed Romney trailing Santorum 33% to 27%. Will Romney pull ahead of Santorum and win Michigan? We shall see.

Obama's Reelection Campaign

So far Obama has started his reelection campaign by fundraising for one of his supportive super PACs, Priorities USA Action. Before now Obama hadn't had much to do with this super PAC. His campaign manger says this sudden change "was a reaction to massive fundraising posted by super PACs supporting GOP candidates". Obama supports a law intended to force full disclosure of all funding intended to influence elections. So why would he support super PAC fundraising? I think Obama is getting a little nervous about how much money the GOP candidates are raising. In December, Priorities USA Action had about $4.4 million compared to Romney's Restore Our Future which had over $30 million. Even though Obama called spending by these groups "a threat to our democracy", for some reason he is supporting Super PAC fundraising this campaign so far. Is it because it is working for Romney? Not only are the GOP candidates trying to defeat Obama but also two other PACs (American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS) are planning on raising money to help defeat Obama. I think our president might be getting a little nervous about reelection.

The Florida Primary

Many people are asking whether or not the Florida primary will determine a GOP front-runner. So far, it looks like Romney is in the lead. Since there were three different winners in the three other contests so far, people are hoping Florida will be able to put one of the remaining candidates firmly into the front-runner position. The latest poll that was released showed Romney with a twelve point lead ahead of Newt with Santorum and Paul far behind. The poll showed 51% for Romney and 29% for Gingrich. If Romney does win this primary he will put the nomination firmly in his grip. Gingrich and Santorum won't stop trying to take it from him though. The day before the primary, Romney and Gingrich continued to clash. Over the weekend Gingrich made a vow to take his campaign all the way to the Republican convention. Romney said that this is a sign of his desperation. More people have voted in this primary than have voted in either of the three before this one. Paul and Santorum already know they won't win this primary and have moved on to the next contest. If Newt loses Florida the next few primaries don't look good for him. Tonight we will see the results of the Florida primary.

Last Night's Debate

Last night the first presidential debate since the South Carolina primary occurred. CNN points out five major things we learned from last night. 1) "A New Twist on 'Newt Romney". For a while Gingrich has proposed having a one-on-one debate with Romney and last night was a taste of what one would be like. For much of the evening Romney fired back at Gingrich. His unrelenting attacks might have something to do with the fact that Gingrich beat him in the South Carolina primary. 2) "Hitting the mute button". In the South Carolina debate the audience was very rowdy and seemed to push the four candidates to go after each other more. Because of this, before last night's debate even started the moderator asked the audience to withhold any applause to ensure that the debate was about the four candidates and what they have to say. This change to the debate's rules was surprisingly significant. This silence made it difficult for the candidates to guage their applause lines and it made it difficult to guage who won the back and forth rounds between Romney and Gingrich. 3) "Trying to shoulder into a two-man race". During last night's debate Santorum tried to remind everyone that this isn't a two-man race. He blames the media for narrowing the field. Most of the night Santorum took a backseat. He did have two attacks that were well launched but didn't seem to land effectively. When Ron Paul was asked if he thought he had a viable chance in winning the election he pointed out that a lot of his support is going to come from young adults. 4) "Practice makes perfect?". Finally, after giving many faulty answers about his tax returns, Romney gave some fluid responses. By giving answers last night, Romney hoped to defuse the issue that had created a week of bad press leading up to the South Carolina primary. 5) "All Politics is Local". A third of last night's debate was focused on issues important to Florida.

Tension Between GOP Candidates & Keys to Romney's Success

The GOP candidates are all unhappy about a few different issues right now, but mostly they are unhappy with each other. Each of the candidates are unhappy with each other and just want to tear each other down. The only thing they all may be united upon is the goal of defeating Obama. The tea partiers have all decided to give Romney a chance. Romney tied with Paul for second in Iowa and came in first in New Hampshire. In South Carolina the Gov. has endorsed Romney and the Sen. is just staying out of it. It has been said that Romney learned from his failure to launch four years ago. This year he has decided that in order to control the debate he has to look forward not backward. Romney doesn't flip-flop on issues. He defends his health-care plan without backing away from it and in response to attacks on his past record he points to his present record. Last week an international poll rated Romney to be the person best able to handle health care - he must be doing something right!

High Stakes New Hampshire Race

Tonight the results from the New Hampshire Primary will be revealed. The turnout has been steady and so far Romney has a win and a tie. He beat Ron Paul 5 - 4 in Hart's location and tied with Huntsman in Dixville Notch. In the Democratic primary Obama received all the votes in both locations (Harts and Dixville Notch). Late polls have shown Huntsman and Paul running neck-and-neck for second place. Since Iowa, Gingrich has been pounding against Romney. He doesn't think Romney is the right guy to go up against Obama. Perry sided with Gingrich in attacking Romney's business record. As of now, Romney tops most national polling and is ahead in the latest surveys in South Carolina and Florida, the next two states to hold contests following New Hampshire. On Monday in one off his speeches he had a slip up. He said, "I like being able to fire people who provide services to me,". "You know, if someone doesn't give me the good service I need, I want to say, 'You know, I'm going to go get someone else to provide that service to me.' " The first seven words of that sentence -- "I like being able to fire people," dangled like low-hanging fruit, and some of Romney's rivals pounced.

Obama vs. Boehner

Boehner recently made public a letter urging Obama to order the Senate back from their holiday break to take part in further talks. The Democratic- controlled Senate rejected this idea and Obama agreed with them. The House ended up approving of a resolution supporting a yearlong extension of both the payroll tax cut and emergency federal unemployment benefits. About three measures have been approved that are set to expire December 31. These measures have slammed into a conservative roadblock in the House. No one knows how to stop the logjam. The Republicans are calling for a one-year payroll tax cut extension. Boehner has decided to ask Obama to appoint negotiators. If we don't act on this we might have a major economic and political fallout. Boehner is in favor of the Senate plan ( a two month long extension) and most rank and file members are against it. The Senate's two month measure would reduce the deficit by approximately $3 billion. The two month extension was agreed on as a fallback position.

Gingrich's Vow to Stay Positive

After engaging in a verbal back-and-forth with Mitt Romney, Gingrich is now vowing to "stay positive" and avoid attacking fellow Republican presidential candidates. Yesterday Gingrich and Romney "sniped at each other over their records in the private sector". Now Gingrich says he wants to "stay positive" so that Obama won't end up getting re-elected. By staying positive Gingrich claims that the republican nominee will be able to emerge from the primary season "un-bloodied" and have a better chance against Obama. Gingrich wants to stay focused on real issues like economic and job recovery. He also vowed to "disassociate himself with any independent political groups that run negative ads against other candidates", and advised people not to donate to any Super PAC that produces negative advertising. Even though Romney may be attacking Gingrich because he is now the runner up, Gingrich remains calm, cool, and collected.

Source: CNN

With Cain gone, where will his supporters go?

After several sexual allegations against him, Cain has decided to end his presidential campaign so that his family won't have to endure any further pain from any more false allegations. With Cain out of the race, where will his supporters go? We are still waiting on an endorsement from Cain. He said that he "would weigh his options carefully and not rush to endorse one of his former opponents". While we wait to see who Cain will endorse, his rivals are waiting with open arms for his supporters to shift to them. Newt Gingrich, the current forerunner, is considered "a favorite to get Cain's endorsement". Ron Paul says that he is "a natural fit for the Cain crowd". Bachmann also argues that she is attracting Cain followers. "I think part of it is because people see that I'm the tea party candidate in the race. They saw Herman Cain as an outsider, and I think they see that my voice will be the one that would be most reflective of his." She believes that trailing candidates like herself have a chance to change their fortunes. A recent CNN poll says that 38% of Cain's followers will likely go to Gingrich. Even though Paul and Bachmann are hoping to benefit from Cain's supporters, it makes more sense for Gingrich to get most of Cain's supporters.

Source: CNN

Gingrich's Jump in the Polls

Surprisingly, Newt Gingrich has surged and is now almost tied with Mitt Romney in the race for Republican Presidential nomination. According to a CNN International Poll released yesterday, 24% of republicans and independents say that they are most likely to vote for Romney while 22% say that they are most likely to vote for Gingrich. Gingrich is now only 2% below Romney. Gingrich's support has jumped 14 points since October. Romney's has stayed about the same. Cain is at 14% because of his 11 point drop from last month most likely linked to the sexual allegations against him. Romney, who started out in the lead, is at 12%. According to the poll, Romney and Gingrich are the two republican candidates with favorable ratings above 50%. The key difference between these two is electability. Gingrich is not as electable as Romney. But how has Gingrich jumped in the polls so much? One of the main reasons is his well-received performances in the presidential debates. The drop in support for Cain and Perry is going to Newt. A lot of what it has come down to is people don't want to support Romney so they support Newt instead.

Obama's Approval Ratings - Still Under 50%

Sunday was the beginning of the one-year countdown to the 2012 presidential election. A CNN "Poll of Polls" released yesterday reveals that Obama's approval rating is still under 50%. According to this Poll, 45% of Americans approve of the way Obama has done his job and 51% disapprove. Though these ratings do not predict next year's election, they are useful in determining Obama's chances in next year's election. Just because 51% of Americans don't approve of Obama, that doesn't mean that those 51% of Americans are going to vote for the Republican candidate next year. They are more likely to either stay at home on election day or vote for a third-party candidate. This "Poll of Polls" is an average of three national polls taken from Gallup, ABC/Washington Post, and Reuters/Ipsos. Some reasons his approval rating might be so low are the slow-to-recover economy and the repeated standoffs with Congress. Having a Republican-led House of Representatives is not helping Obama. Will Obama be able to bring his approval ratings up before next year's election or will they remain below 50%?

Occupy Iowa Caucus

Occupy Wall Street activists are planning to amass in Iowa one week before the Iowa caucuses. They plan to occupy every presidential candidates office and shut them down until they start talking about the real issues that are going on in America. This idea was presented by a group of Occupy Des Moines activists. Between December 27 and January 3 are the supposed dates for this plan. In response to these activists, the Iowa Democratic Party said that Obama was "working hard to strengthen middle class while the Republicans want to let Wall Street write their own rules and return to the same failed economic policies". The Iowa Republican Party didn't respond. According to Ivers, this plan is a fruitless effort. All it will do is create more hours for the Des Moines police department. It really is a futile plan. Though their frustrations are understandable, their methods are not.