Government Distrust

A recent New York Times/CBS News Poll reveals some striking information--distrust of government is at its highest level right now than ever before in our nation's history. Our President's disapproval rating is currently at 46 percent, and Congress's approval rating has dropped to a mere 9 percent. These are striking statistics especially as we move into the 2012 election year. Which candidate will be able to get the confidence of the american people, making them believe that they will be able to turn things around? It is a question which remains to be answered. Will Obama be able to regain the trust which he has lost over his time as this nation's president, or will it be a yet to be determined Republican candidate, offering a fresh approach and new ideas for governing the nation? Regardless of who ends up winning the election, it seems that one of the deciding factors will certainly be which candidate is able to gain the trust of the American people.

Source: New York Times.

Herman Cain's Abortion Flip-Flop

Herman Cain was interviewed by CNN's Piers Morgan this last week and when being asked about the issue of abortion, Cain responded by saying “I believe that life begins at conception, and abortion under no circumstances." However a few months before he said "it ultimately gets down to a choice that that family or that mother has to make". Cain has recently emerged as a serious candidate and many Anti-Abortion Republicans are questioning his abortion views. However, back in 2007 when President Obama was running he at first argued against abortion when he was running in the primaries. But later once Obama got the nomination he argued for pro-choice. Does this mean candidates agree with there parties views of abortion after they are criticized?

Perry’s Economic Plan

Presidential candidate Rick Perry of Texas unveiled a plan on Tuesday to scrap the graduated income tax and replace it with a 20 percent flat rate while granting a major tax cut for the wealthy by throwing out rates as high as 35 percent and eliminating estate and investment taxes. Mr. Perry said his proposal would also offer benefits to middle-class Americans by giving a $12,500 deduction for every member of a household while preserving exemptions for state and local taxes, mortgage interest and charitable contributions for anyone making less than $500,000. He said anyone could still file under the current code, and he also pledged to lower the corporate tax rate to 20 percent, from 35 percent. “Taxes will be cut on all income groups in America,” said Mr. Perry, “The net benefit will be more money in Americans’ pockets, with greater investment in the private economy instead of the federal government.”

Sources: CNN and Washington Post

Gadhafi gone

The death of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi reinforces Obama’s style of dealing with enemies without immersing the United States in war.Even skeptics offered grudging support.For Obama, the outcome allowed him to stand victorious in the Rose Garden on Thursday, taking note also of the death this year of prominent al-Qaida leaders at the hands of the United States. His message: The United States showed it can help rally an international campaign to protect Libyans and rid the world of a killer without a single American dying.For Obama, the larger story is of an administration with deepening credibility on how to handle bad actors or international tinderboxes without immersing the United States in war.It is not expected to impact his re-election chances; 2012 will be the economy election.

Obama's Foreign Policy Successes

Unlike democrats in recent decades, Obama will most likely not be accused of being "soft and inexperienced on military and foreign policy issues". In 2008 Obama was no different from the democrats before him. Now, on the other hand, he has been made "seemingly invulnerable to the quadrennial Republican attack line". Ever since the Vietnam war democrats have been affixed with an anti-war reputation. During Obama's three years he has been able to shed this reputation. Through the killings of Osama bin Laden, Anwar al-Awlaki, and the topping of the Gadhafi regime Obama has been able to achieve foreign policy success. However, if the bin Laden mission had failed Obama would be in the same position as the democrats before him and would be labeled as weak and ineffective.Will his successes matter during election time next year? Or will the dissatisfaction with unemployment and slow economic recovery outweigh any benefits for him? Besides being insulated from the charge of being "soft on defense" what other benefits are there for Obama's foreign policy successes? Overall, I believe Obama's foreign policy approach will bolster him in the election next year.

Republicans Make Judicial Power an Issue

Many Republican candidates in the 2012 election continually campaign against the increased power in the judicial system. Moving into Iowa and South Carolina, the Tea Party movement has created a receptive audience for candidates who raise doubts about whether the court system is hindering the causes that these voters believe in. They believe that the courts especially the Supreme Court have too much power. Various candidates have expressed opinions about the Court's participation in their term served, in their decision of same-sex marriage, and whether the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit should exist at all.

"These threats go far beyond normal campaign season posturing,” said Bert Brandenburg, executive director of Justice At Stake, a research and advocacy group that seeks to protect judicial independence. “They sound populist, but the proposal is to make courts answer to politicians and interest groups.” But then Marjorie Dannenfelser countered Brandenburg's statement.“I don’t think it’s an anticourt movement,” Ms. Dannenfelser said. “It’s a purifying of the court — trying to return it to where it should be.” However people take it, it seems as though the Republicans have more favor in their campaign ideas to reduce the power of the judicial system.

National Bi-literacy = Un-American?

At Coral Way Elementary School in Miami, FL, students are immersed in both English and Spanish. Before lunch, all of the classes are taught in Spanish, and after lunch, they switch to English. This particular decision was part of the after-affects of the Cold War, where several refugees fleeing from Fidel Castro resided in Florida. So, naturally, the school promotes Spanish just as much as English so that the children won't forget their Cuban roots. However, there are some states (such as California, Arizona, Colorado, and Massachusetts) that have banned "bi-literacy" --the term for not just speaking, but reading and writing spanish--in schools because they think it is un-American. Although this might be the opinion among those Americans, there is a vast majority arguing that, due to the increasing number of spanish-speaking immigrants, it is actually becoming invaluable to be able to know both English and Spanish. So much so that there are many companies that hire people based on their ability to speak not just english, but Spanish as well. This "melting pot" that we have come to embrace about our country is every day giving more and more reasons why bi-literacy is not just a "plus" but also expected by many businesses and, now, public schools. Is it un-American to have two national languages? I don't think so. In my opinion, everything that America stands for--life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness--can be strengthened by a bilingual population. And as Rosa de la O states: "it opens the door to the American Dream".

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Source: NPR-- Two Languages, Many Voices, "In Miami, School Aims For 'Bi-Literate' Education"

Affects of Gadhafi's death on U.S. Politics

Following Gadhafi's death Thursday, Obama pledged his support to Libya's future and was celebrating this "momentous day in the history of Libya". However, many people are wondering about the president's own future. It is ironic that Obama, who was elected largely for domestic concerns has payed a lot of attention to foreign affairs, while his approval ratings on state issues continues to sink deeper. Many presidents often drift more into foreign policy initiatives, both as a way to boost their legacies and make a big impact. But the question is, what impact will his overseas successes have on his standing -- and re-election prospects -- here at home? With a struggling economy, terrorism and war are not exactly on the top of the agenda. The most important issue on Americans' minds is not foreign affairs, but unemployment and jobs. Domestic issues reign supreme, and so it's hard to say that the credit Obama will get for these successes abroad will be enough to turn back the tide of his sinking poll numbers.

Occupy Problems

With many protests across the world with the whole the "occupy" motto becoming more popular, many people are becoming concerned with the direction countries could be headed. However there are many flaws with the "Occupy" protests.
-There is no leader for the protests. In past rebellions there where leaders like Vladimir Lenin and Mao
-Occupy protests have no direct demands. Although they argue for social equality and no more big government...they have no clear direct demands.
-What do they expect to achieve? Occupy protesters aren't sure what they will get from the government or Wall Street.
These are few problems with the occupy protests. Does this mean that they won't succeed? No, but it does hamper there validity in their protests.
Source CNN TV

Deficit Panel: Not much progress

The 12-member bipartisan committee is just over halfway through the 76-day interval from its first meeting to the date its final report is due on Nov. 23, but has made very few decisions. The lawmakers have not agreed on basic elements like a benchmark against which savings will be measured. The panel’s members, evenly divided between the two parties, spent most of September in a standoff. Republicans refused to budge from their position against new taxes. Democrats said they would not discuss cuts to entitlement programs like Medicare unless Republicans made a firm commitment to accept additional revenues. They have said very little publicly about their discussions or whether any progress has been made on the politically explosive issues of tax hikes and spending cuts for government healthcare and retirement programs. Several committee members said they were afraid of failure. They know that voters, investors and credit-rating agencies will take the panel’s work as evidence of how well Congress functions. Failure by the super committee to reach agreement would trigger $1.2 trillion in spending cuts, starting in 2013, evenly divided between military and domestic programs.

The Target on Herman Cain's back

Emerging from the pack of republican nominee seekers over the past few weeks has been Herman Cain, the former Godfather Pizza CEO who brings a unique style to the race and has captured the attention of many in our nation. Cain, with his 9-9-9 tax plan and his strong performances in each of the GOP debates up to this point, has managed to jump into a close second, passing Rick Perry and currently sitting close to Mitt Romney. Although Cain, as shown by Gallup, is only the sixth most recognizable of the GOP candidates, he has captured the interest of many who have discovered him, and finds himself in an unfamiliar situation going into tonight's debate: he is now the target. Whereas Cain previously went into each of the debates as a middle of the pack candidate whom most had small expectations for, he now goes into tonight's debate as the one everybody wants to know more about. He can expect his answers to be scrutinized more fully, his opponents to question his reasoning and views more in-depth, and his journey for the nomination to get a whole lot tougher as a result. Herman Cain remains largely unknown right now, and finds himself at an absolutely pivotal point in his campaign--people are trying to discover more about him. Will he impress and continue to increase his following, or will his inexperience on issues such as foreign policy scare people away? Will he do enough to remove people's doubts that an individual with virtually no political experience can handle the white house? These and others are certainly viable questions, and I would argue that the way Cain responds to these questions over the next few weeks will be crucial in determining the final course of his campaign.

Sources: Gallup, Washington Post.

"Civil", right?

This whole "Occupy Wall street" thing has been going on for awhile now and I think it's important people start paying attention. But to also realize what it is. Essentially it's a bunch of angry middle class Americans frustrated with the economy and figure it must be "the Man's" fault. And while I believe what they're doing is helping somewhat (bringing attention to the fact that something has to be done) they're not really helping themselves really anyone else by doing it. Away from their jobs and causing chaos in New York, they are not helping the problem.
This is also something that could spiral out of control very quickly, especially since there is no recognized leader of these people. And with the nervous and anxious NYPD reacting the way it has there really is no telling what will happen next.
I think it's fitting that this sort of "civil rights" movement is happening alongside the opening of the Martin Luther King Jr. monument. And how certain comparisons can be made between the two, if to a somewhat lesser degree.

GOP Debate

Tonight at 8:00 there will be a debate in Los Vegas between seven of the top presidential candidates. A lot is at stake for these candidates. In the past month Romney and Cain have increased their numbers while Perry has significantly decreased. Tonight will be an intense debate for most of the candidates.
Cain might have to clarify why he said that he was going to have a fence 20 feet high, have barbed wire on top, and be electrified. Was he just joking or was he serious? If he was joking, then like Bachmann said, "This is not a joke. It is a serious issue".
Tonight will also give the other candidates a chance to fire away at Romney, the front-runner. His conservative credentials will most likely be questioned. But as Castellanos says, "These attacks just bounce off his force field and he comes out stronger and more presidential in every debate". Will he be able to maintain his lead after the debate tonight or will the other candidates tear him down?
Texas gov. Rick Perry needs a very strong debate tonight. Perry has admitted that debates are not his strong suit. This is part of why he has faded in the polls. If tonight is another weak debate for him he may be out of the race for good. In order to have a strong debate, Perry needs to explain how he would create jobs and growth. Cain has already done this with his 9-9-9 plan. Because of Cain's 9-9-9 plan, he is now one of the front-runners of the race. If Perry can explain how he would create jobs and growth he might be able to boost his numbers.
For Bachmann, the debate tonight brings another opportunity for her to try to jump-start her campaign. After having been overshadowed by Perry, Bachmann needs to jump-start her campaign again. Will she be able to do that in the debate tonight?
For Santorum the debate tonight gives another opportunity to go on the attack and criticize his opponents.
You can expect little more than lines that will get applause from the audience for Newt Gingrich. He excels at debates but has not been able to monopolize on his debate successes.
Out of the seven candidates, Ron Paul has the least on the line tonight. Regardless of his debate performances, he has still been able to energize his supporters.
Huntsman, on the other hand, is not even going to the debate tonight. Huntsman is placing all his chips on New Hampshire and boycotting the showdown to protest Nevada's decision to hold its caucus on January 14. Nearly every debate has had an impact on the polls in the race for the nomination. Not getting any TV exposure is a heavy price that Huntsman is willing to pay.
Tonight's showdown will be very important for each of the candidates.

Obama Losing Voters?

Contrary to what some Pro-bama voters may think, from recent analysis in preparation for the upcoming election, Obama may not have the presidency in the bag. Due to recent polling and surveying of public opinions on the 2012 election, Republicans are much more enthusiastic about voting that Democrats. Fifty-nine percent of voters don't even believe that Obama's policies will be successful in the future (a statistic that has gone up from 47% in 2010). That leaves only 36% of voters rooting for Obama. Now, these are simply estimates based on broad polls to gain a general perspective on the situation. However, most of the time they are very near to the truth of the matter. Still, we can throw around numbers all day and try to guess the turnout of the election, but no one will know anything for certain until next term. Either way, Obama should not only be aware of this situation, but possible worried for the weight that his candidacy will pull in 2012.

Lying: First Amendment Right?

A case was taken up based on whether or not one can say they have earned a military award when they know it is a falsity and have it protected under the First Amendment. It began with the prosecution of Xavier Alvarez who violated a 2005 law, the Stolen Valor Act when he falsely claimed to have been awarded a Congressional Medal of Honor. The Act prohibited anyone to falsely say that one has “been awarded any decoration or medal authorized by Congress for the armed forces of the United States.” But Alvarez then claimed that it was not illegal because he what he said was protected under the First Amendment rights (free speech). The justices ruled that it was illegal because nowhere in the Constitution did it protect things people say that they know to be false.

Then it got interesting. A panel in the US Court of Appeals reversed the ruling. Judge Milan D. Smith Jr. said, “There would be no constitutional bar to criminalizing lying about one’s height, weight, age or financial status on Match.com or Facebook, or falsely representing to one’s mother that one does not smoke, drink alcoholic beverages, is a virgin, or has not exceeded the speed limit while driving on the freeway. The sad fact is,” he continued, “most people lie about some aspects of their lives from time to time.” They felt that if they made it illegal to lie about earning something they didn't really earn, it would have to be illegal to lie about all "white lies, exaggerations, and deceptions."

However, some people want Alvarez to be retried because they feel that Congress is entitled “to guard against dilution of the reputation and meaning of the medals.” They aren't planning to, though, because the Chief Justice John G. Roberts is one who usually favors free speech cases which appears to be the case in United States v. Alvarez.

Occupy Wall Street

The Occupy Wall Street movement, which swept across the United States as thousands demanded that government institutions change to help fix a struggling economy, gained a major boost as the world began to come together in solidarity over shared economic frustrations. Protests have lasted for 31days and many are wondering how long a leaderless, vaguely defined movement will last. With the help of continued economic discontent, growing media coverage, and the use of internet and social media in bringing possible demonstrators together, the movement seems to be gaining speed. Over the weekend, 19 more people were arrested in Washington, D.C., by Supreme Court police, while over 90 were taken into police custody in New York. There are several causes, but the main theme remains the same: populist anger over an out-of-touch corporate, financial, and political elite. Many are wondering whether Occupy Wall Street will eventually become a liberal counterweight to the conservative populism of the tea party movement. If the tea party was a conservative response to President Barack Obama's economic bailout plan in the spring of 2009, Occupy Wall Street came about partly due to liberals' reaction to the outcome of this summer's bitter debt-ceiling debate. Obama and other top Democrats ultimately agreed to over $2 trillion in spending cuts without any tax hikes on Wall Street financiers or others considered responsible for the economic crisis.

I thought this was interesting considering that we've been studying the influences of public opinion on what politicians pay attention to and the importance of political elites.

Source: CNN

Chris Christie Will Not Run for GOP Nomination

Just this afternoon, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, whom many had speculated would jump into the race for the GOP nomination and really shake things up a bit, announced that he will not be running for the nomination. This move disappointed many, as Christie, were he to get the GOP nomination, seemed to be the best candidate against Obama. As stated by David Paul Kuhn, "The first-term governor was strong where the most likely Republican nominees are weak. Christie was a Rorschach test for conservatives’ continued unease with the current GOP field." With Christie now out of the discussion, the field seems to be set barring a late Sarah Palin entry, which seems extremely unlikely at this point.

In addition to Christie's announcement, the last week has seen significant movement for Rick Perry and Herman Cain in the polls, negative for Perry and positive for Cain. Nearly all of the recent polls have Perry and Cain nearly equal, and some, such as CBS News' National President poll, have Cain up on Perry by 5 percent. Although we'll obviously see much more change in these numbers as the race goes on, Cain's jump is very significant and he provides an interesting opponent to the frontrunner Mitt Romney. The movement of Cain will be very interesting to follow as the campaigns progress.

Sources: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/10/04/what_the_christie_craze_means___111567.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/with-christie-out-will-romney-or-perry-prosper/2011/10/04/gIQADnzqLL_story.html?hpid=z1

We'll Miss Chris ):

After wrestling with the decision on whether or not to run for the presidency, republican New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has finally chosen to stay out of the election this year, simply stating that "Now is not my time". This decision was a rather large, yet not unexpected blow to some Republicans who were hopping to equip themselves with a strong opponent who could stand a good chance against Obama. They thought that because of Christie's tough, blunt personality, he might be that representative. However, it looks like the GOP candidate race will remain a toss up between Perry and Romney, as their rivalry continues to flourish.

Sources -

CNN

NPR

The New York Times

New GOP Bids

Rick Perry’s fading, Herman Cain’s surging and what about Mitt Romney? He’s running in place. After a quick rise in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has experienced an almost equally dramatic decline, losing about half of his support over the past month, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Perry’s slide, which comes after several uneven performances in candidate debates, has allowed former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney to resurface atop the GOP field. But the most direct beneficiary of the disenchantment with Perry is businessman Herman Cain, who is now tied for second place. Rick Perry’s support has plummeted from 29 percent last month to 16 percent in October. Herman Cain, who quadrupled his support in the span of one month, has blasted off from 4 percent in September to 16 percent in today’s poll. In September, Romney was the choice of 25 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in our poll, and one month later, he’s still the choice of 25 percent of them. Although not fully satisfied with their choices, Republicans are optimistic about their chances of winning the election. More than eight in 10 say the eventual GOP nominee is likely to beat President Obama next year. In the new poll, Obama’s approval remained at a low point in his presidency.

Deficit Reduction

Just recently, a 12-member congressional "supercommittee" is going to start to try to rein in the out of control deficits. This "supercommittee" is made up of 6 House members and 6 senators. Most of them were appointed to the committee because their careers have exhibited party loyalty. They have until November 23 to find $1.5 trillion in deficit cuts over the next decade. Cutting $1.5 trillion off the deficit through 2021 will only reduce projected federal spending no more than 4%. In order to achieve this $1.5 trillion reduction "both sides are fairly entrenched in the positions they've held all year". The conservatives want to shrink the size of the government and tackle the main driver's of the nation's debt (entitlements). Liberals believe that revenues are needed in order to solve the problem. John Boehner believes that tax increases are destroying jobs. Republicans also believe that taxes need to be cut. If the supercommittee fails, an automatic across the board spending cut equal to $1.2 trillion would be triggered. This would be especially hard on the military. Will the supercommittee work together and achieve this goal?

Solyndra

Despite costly failure, the Obama administration pours billions into alternative energy companies such as Solyndra. Obama's is committed to green jobs and the U.S. Department of Energy is backing almost $40 billion in loans. Monday Obama said he does not regret a half-billion dollar government loan to the now-bankrupt solar energy company Solyndra and vigorously defended his administration’s policy of providing assistance to similar entities. The government has hired SolarCity to work at 124 U.S. Military bases over the next five years, installing 160,000 housing units, warehouses, and administrative buildings. According to the Department of Energy, one of its goals is to support novel technologies such as these that are “not yet supported in the commercial marketplace”. Solyndra's failure illustrates that private investors aren't willing to shoulder financing these risky projects. Market forces and cheap solar panels from China kept Solyndra from being a profitable power option even while $535 million in loans guarantees kept the company afloat. After the Department of Energy refused Solyndra more loans, the company filed for bankruptcy with $784 million in debt. After Solyndra claimed they were bankrupt, Obama was asked whether or not he regretted the $535 million in loans in 2009. “No I don’t,” the president said, “Because if you look at the overall portfolio of loan guarantees that had been provided, overall it’s doing well. And what we always understood is that not every single business is going to succeed in clean energy.”

Sources: World & CNN

Civil Right to Speech

Hank Williams Jr., the guy who does the opening song to Monday night football, exercised his right to speech to a weird extent on Monday. In an interview Monday morning on Fox's "Fox & Friends," Williams, unprompted, said of Obama's outing to golf with House Speaker John Boehner: "It'd be like Hitler playing golf with (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu."
He was asked to clarify and he said, "they're the enemy" adding that by "they" he meant Obama and Biden. The anchor later said to him, "You used the name of one of the most hated people in all of the world to describe, I think, the president." Williams replied, "Well, that is true. But I'm telling you like it is." He also said that Obama and Biden were like the three stooges.
Here we see freedom of speech in action. In most countries being compared to Hitler is no small offense.
Williams released a statement through his publicist, saying: "Some of us have strong opinions and are often misunderstood. My analogy was extreme — but it was to make a point. I was simply trying to explain how stupid it seemed to me — how ludicrous that pairing was. They're polar opposites and it made no sense. They don't see eye-to-eye and never will. I have always respected the office of the president."

2012 Election: The "Underdog"

President Obama spoke in an ABC news interview saying how he's absolutely the "underdog" in this competition, but that he's used to it. In the interview, he also said that Americans will re-elect him because they will see he has “a vision for the future that can actually help ordinary families recapture that American dream.” Mr. Christie, a New Jersey governor, disagrees. He doesn't think, as most Americans don't, that Mr. Obama has been successful in unifying us as a nation. Obama has been shrugging off comments like that for awhile. He uses the excuse that Gov. Christie could potentially decide to run as a Republican candidate, and that the things he has been saying would just be to boost himself in the polls. And, actually, they might. Taken in a Washington Post-ABC News poll, about 55% of Americans expect a Republican to win the White House, while only 37% expect Mr. Obama to be re-elected.

In an effort for Obama to not "make news", he has been avoiding answering questions about his views on topics like same-sex marriage. He says he's still working on it. Some suspect he simply doesn’t want to come out for gay marriage ahead of the 2012 election, for fear it will alienate voters who disagree. One can infer from previous events as well as what is happening currently, though, that Obama only has slim chances of making it back to the White House next year.

Democrats Worried About 2012

A recent Washington Post-ABC News poll said 55 percent of Americans expect a Republican victory next year and fewer than 37 percent, predict that President Obama will win reelection. Republicans are very confident that whoever there nominee is, will when next election. In a Bloomberg poll 34% of democrats think it would have been better for the country if Hillary Clinton hadn't lost the battle for the Democratic nomination to Obama. Many Democrats are questioning Obama and if he was the right man for the job in 2008. With the economy struggling, Obama and Democrats are very worried about reelections in 2012. Some say it is to early to give the Republicans an advantage. We see how it plays out as the election nears.